The games industry ‘will only have room for one non-Nintendo console next gen’, it’s claimed

The games industry will only be able to support two successful game consoles in the next generation of hardware, a new report claims, and one of those will ‘clearly’ be Nintendo.

Market research firm DFC Intelligence released its annual market report and forecast this week, in which it projects major revenue growth for the second half of the decade, while predicting significant risk for one of the three established console manufacturers.

DFC predicts that, thanks to new hardware from Nintendo and major releases such as GTA6, the games industry will enjoy record growth in 2025, following a period of decline following the Covid 19 pandemic.

The firm predicts that the number of people worldwide who play video games will exceed 4 billion by 2027 – nearly half the global population. It projects that Nintendo will be “the clear winner” in the next generation of consoles, due largely to a combination of earlier availability and limited competition.

However, DFC projects that only one of Sony and Microsoft will be able to successfully compete with Nintendo when their new consoles launch by 2028.

“There isn’t room for more than two major console systems,” it says. “Sony or Microsoft will struggle mightily in a distant third place – largely depending on which of those companies can gain early momentum.”

DFC believes it’s too early to know which of Xbox and PlayStation will drop off next gen, stating that price points, launch dates, and other basic features such as portability, will factor.

“A new Sony system (PlayStation 6?) should have an advantage because of loyal base and strong Sony IP,” it says, while noting that Microsoft will go into its next console as the largest gaming publisher.

“Microsoft failed with Xbox Series X/S but has made major acquisitions to become world’s largest software publisher. Microsoft has the option of focusing on software and distribution models over hardware.”

DFC Intelligence founder and CEO David Cole said in a statement: “Over the past three decades, the video game industry has grown more than 20x, and after two years of slumping hardware and software sales, it’s poised to resume growing at a healthy rate through the end of the decade.

“While 2025 will mark the beginning of that upward trajectory, some huge questions remain, including who will lose the next-gen console war and who will win the game software distribution battle. And with the large publishers focused on live services around evergreen franchises, opportunities for smaller studios will be plentiful.”

Nintendo has yet to officially reveal its Switch successor, but the company has confirmed plans to do so during its current fiscal year, which ends in March 2025.