‘Switch 2 can’t come soon enough’: Nintendo lowers forecast again as Switch sales decline 30%
Switch has now cleared 150m, but sales are slowing faster than Nintendo expected
Nintendo has lowered its Switch sales forecast by a further 1.5 million units, as sales continue to decline in the run-up to the launch of its next-gen console.
In its latest earnings report covering the three months ended December 31, Nintendo said it lowered its hardware sales forecast to 11m for the current fiscal year (ending March 31, 2025), which is the second reduction in a row after it previously lowered its 13.5m forecast to 12.5m. The company also lowered its operating profit outlook by a further 22% to ¥280 billion ($1.8bn).
Nintendo sold 4.82m Switch consoles during the quarter, for a total of 9.54m this fiscal year, and 150.86m life-to-date. The Switch has to clear 154 million (Nintendo DS) and at least 160 million (PS2) to become the best-selling console in history.
Year-on-year, Switch hardware sales are down more than 30%, and software sales are down 24%, which Nintendo partly attributes to the boost provided by The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (released in May 2023) and Super Mario Bros. Wonder (released in October 2023) in its previous fiscal year.
“While we think sales of hardware and software are solid for the eighth year, we did not achieve our plan,” Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa said in an earnings briefing following the publication of the results. He also spoke about Nintendo’s plans to prevent Switch 2 resellers, and how it will support Switch 1 after Switch 2’s launch.
Nintendo finally announced Nintendo Switch 2 last month, along with plans for worldwide hands-on events starting in April, by which time the original Switch will have been available for over eight years.
Dr Serkan Toto, CEO of Tokyo-based game industry consultancy Kantan Games, told VGC today’s Nintendo results suggest that Switch 2 “cannot come soon enough” and questioned what games the company would use to fill the gap. Currently, Nintendo’s confirmed Switch release schedule includes only the upcoming Xenoblade remaster.
“It is now much clearer how Nintendo overestimated the life that is still left in the Switch at the start of the fiscal year,” he said. “Nintendo now revised the hardware sales forecast two times, and I expect them to miss even this lowered forecast.
“I’m not sure why they thought they would sell 14 million units this fiscal year with a very dry software slate. Switch 2 cannot come soon enough. I hope for them it is not scheduled for Fall, like not too few people believe.”
The company’s results for the first three months of its current fiscal year show an operating profit of ¥247.5 billion ($1.6bn), which is down 87% compared to the same period last year.
THE BEST-SELLING SWITCH GAMES
*As of December 31, 2024 (compared to September 2024)
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 67.35m (+2.08m)
- Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 47.44m (+0.99m)
- Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 35.88m (+0.74m)
- Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 32.62m (+0.33m)
- Super Mario Odyssey – 29.04m (+0.54m)
- Pokemon Sword/Shield – 26.60m (+0.16m)
- Pokémon Scarlet & Violet – 26.38m (+0.69m)
- Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom – 21.55m (+0.51m)
- Super Mario Party – 21.10m (+0.12m)
- New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe – 18.06 (+0.29m)
In software (covering October through December), the Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (released in September) recorded a further 1.3m sales for a total of 3.91m. Super Mario Party Jamboree (released in October) has sold 6.17m units – a best for the series in its first 11 weeks – and Mario & Luigi Brothership (released in November) sold 1.4m copies.
Despite a year-on-year decline in hardware sales, Nintendo estimates a record 129m annual playing users for 2024, which is up from 127m in 2023. The proportion of digital sales has increased 2.9% this fiscal year to 51%, Nintendo said.
Going forward, Donkey Kong Country Returns HD was released in January, and Nintendo plans to follow this up with Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition in March. Metroid Prime 4: Beyond and Pokémon Legenda Z-A will both release in 2025, Nintendo reiterated.
